It is now Hurricane Dean - Jamaicans be on the lookout
I awoke this morning to the news that tropical storm Dean has been upgraded to Hurricane Dean. The predictions are flying left, right and center, pretty much like the election predictions in Jamaica. The only difference there are no polls to rely on only historical data and computer models projecting a course based on the past data and prevailing conditions.
At Accuweather, their 'experts' Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski and Senior Meteorologist Paul Walker have suggested that Dean will take a 'Gilbert-Like' path. Now that is interesting but certainly not funny. Over at National Hurricane center the thinking is pretty much the same but just a little south of Jamaica. At Weatherunderground, the story is much the same, even daring to predict that by Sunday or Monday will be in the area of Jamaica.
I doubt that timeline though, but I am not an expert, as historical Hurricanes general slow down, to region of 12 MPH to 15 MPH, as they become larger. Gilbert(1988) was an exception and that saved Jamaica from even more destruction as it flew over Jamaica at 17-18 MPH compared to Ivan (2004) which caused serious erosion on the Jamaican south coast crawling at 6-9 MPH even becoming stationary at times.
Guilty
Before I continue, let me express my deep concern for the people of Dominica, St. Lucia, Martinique, Guadeloupe, Barbados St. Vincent and St. Marten. I sometimes behave like the television networks in the USA and forget that people actually live in those islands. That is real bad especially given that I actually have friends and relatives there.
For the people of the islands of the Lesser Antilles the treat is imminent. At 5:00 a.m this morning the center of Hurricane Dean was 485 miles east of Barbados, 590 Miles East of Martinique and it was moving to the west. Given that the storm is moving at 24 MPH, at this time, if it continues on this course, a quick calculation suggests (485/24) that in a little over 20 hours the center will pass over or near Barbados the most easterly of the Islands of the Lesser Antilles. Now Hurricanes have mind of their own so that is just a guess.
Note though that hurricane winds(75 MPH and above) extend up to 25 miles from the center and Tropical Storm winds (35 MPH and above) extend up to 70 miles from the center. This means two things that the effects of the system could be felt up 3-4 hours before the center of the hurricane passes over any island and secondly that the storm needs only to pass close enough for the impact to be felt. This is what happened recently to Jamaica in 2004 with Ivan, 2005 with Emily Dennis and Wilma.
Also of note is that another Tropical Storm, Erin, is nearing the coast of Texas. My thoughts go out to those persons too.
Preparations
My wife and I went to Mega-Mart last night, restocking Hurricane supplies, and it was clear Jamaicans have learned their lessons and the work of Barbara Carby and the ODPEM has been successful. The lines where long, the batteries where short the flashlights and lamps were going.
As I said on Monday, If come this Friday and the system is anywhere between 10-15N and 50-55W then we will have to open our eyes real wide. Well it is now Thursday and the storm's center at 5:00 p.m. is 13.4 North 52.3 West. It is time to keep our eyes open very wide.
Monitor Progress
Those in Jamaica, and with interests in Jamaica can follow the progess of Hurricane Dean at www.go-jamaica.com/weather, the Jamaica Gleaner's weather page. Updates from the local Meteorology Office are posted there.
At Accuweather, their 'experts' Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski and Senior Meteorologist Paul Walker have suggested that Dean will take a 'Gilbert-Like' path. Now that is interesting but certainly not funny. Over at National Hurricane center the thinking is pretty much the same but just a little south of Jamaica. At Weatherunderground, the story is much the same, even daring to predict that by Sunday or Monday will be in the area of Jamaica.
I doubt that timeline though, but I am not an expert, as historical Hurricanes general slow down, to region of 12 MPH to 15 MPH, as they become larger. Gilbert(1988) was an exception and that saved Jamaica from even more destruction as it flew over Jamaica at 17-18 MPH compared to Ivan (2004) which caused serious erosion on the Jamaican south coast crawling at 6-9 MPH even becoming stationary at times.
Guilty
Before I continue, let me express my deep concern for the people of Dominica, St. Lucia, Martinique, Guadeloupe, Barbados St. Vincent and St. Marten. I sometimes behave like the television networks in the USA and forget that people actually live in those islands. That is real bad especially given that I actually have friends and relatives there.
For the people of the islands of the Lesser Antilles the treat is imminent. At 5:00 a.m this morning the center of Hurricane Dean was 485 miles east of Barbados, 590 Miles East of Martinique and it was moving to the west. Given that the storm is moving at 24 MPH, at this time, if it continues on this course, a quick calculation suggests (485/24) that in a little over 20 hours the center will pass over or near Barbados the most easterly of the Islands of the Lesser Antilles. Now Hurricanes have mind of their own so that is just a guess.
Note though that hurricane winds(75 MPH and above) extend up to 25 miles from the center and Tropical Storm winds (35 MPH and above) extend up to 70 miles from the center. This means two things that the effects of the system could be felt up 3-4 hours before the center of the hurricane passes over any island and secondly that the storm needs only to pass close enough for the impact to be felt. This is what happened recently to Jamaica in 2004 with Ivan, 2005 with Emily Dennis and Wilma.
Also of note is that another Tropical Storm, Erin, is nearing the coast of Texas. My thoughts go out to those persons too.
Preparations
My wife and I went to Mega-Mart last night, restocking Hurricane supplies, and it was clear Jamaicans have learned their lessons and the work of Barbara Carby and the ODPEM has been successful. The lines where long, the batteries where short the flashlights and lamps were going.
As I said on Monday, If come this Friday and the system is anywhere between 10-15N and 50-55W then we will have to open our eyes real wide. Well it is now Thursday and the storm's center at 5:00 p.m. is 13.4 North 52.3 West. It is time to keep our eyes open very wide.
Monitor Progress
Those in Jamaica, and with interests in Jamaica can follow the progess of Hurricane Dean at www.go-jamaica.com/weather, the Jamaica Gleaner's weather page. Updates from the local Meteorology Office are posted there.
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